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                                                                                                                                                                          澳门葡京娱乐官网:苏交科:19年增长动力充足 买入评级

                                                                                                                                                                              2018年业绩预增15%-35%,超市场预期。公司公告2018年归母净利润为5.3亿元-6.3亿元,同比增长15%-35%,中值为25%超市场预期。

                                                                                                                                                                          同时公司公告2018年非经损益对净利润影响为0.65亿元-0.85亿元,公司2015-2017年非经损益分别为0.14亿元、0.32亿元及0.35亿元,我们预计2018年非经损益增加可能与转让TestAmerica股权有关。如若公司2018年归母净利润增速为25%,则2018年扣非后归母净利润增速为15%-20%。稳增长基建顺周期趋势下,预计公司19年增长动力充足,未来有望继续保持稳定增长。

                                                                                                                                                                          铁路/轨交投资蓄势发力稳增长,交通设计龙头有望显著受益。近期发改委批复计划总投资额为2317亿元的江苏沿江城市群城际铁路建设规划及计划总投资额为1469亿元的武汉城市轨道交通第四期建设规划,2018年9月至12月重大铁路及轨交项目合计批复计划投资额已达7142亿元,批复节奏显著加快。中央经济工作会议提出“逆周期调节”,重点要求加大基础设施补短板力度,预计铁路与轨交将是重要着力点,公司作为交通规划设计龙头有望显著受益。

                                                                                                                                                                          环境业务拓展取得标志性进展,有望持续受益环保行业浪潮。近期公司公告通过收购提升江苏益铭持股比例至51%,江苏益铭主营业务为环境保护检测技术咨询与服务,其业绩承诺为2018年净利润不低于1667万,2018-2020年净利润复合增速不低于30%,三年累计净利润不低于6651万元。近几年在国家环境管理要求不断提高背景下,环保投资及检测需求快速增长。此次收购完成后,公司有望显著提升环境检测、环境咨询及环境修复一体化业务能力,未来有望充分受益于环保行业浪潮。

                                                                                                                                                                          投资建议:我们预测公司2018-2020年归母净利润分别为5.8/7.0/8.4亿元,同比增长25%/20%/20%,对应EPS分别为0.72/0.86/1.04元,2017-2020年CAGR为21.9%。当前股价对应PE分别为15/12/10倍,维持“买入”评级。

                                                                                                                                                                          风险提示:基建政策落地不及预期风险,收购整合不及预期风险等。